| We attended Gartner's recent webinar entitled | | | | mainstream adoption. They have predicted that |
| "Emerging Technology Hype Cycle 2010: What's | | | | cloud computing will be mainstream within 2-5 |
| Hot and What's Not", presented by Jackie Fenn. | | | | years time. |
| Gartner's Hype Cycles are considered to be some | | | | How else can we visualize and interpret this |
| of the most respected forms of research in the | | | | information? A priority matrix is published |
| field of technology. Here's a quick overview of | | | | alongside every Hype Cycle. Priority matrices are |
| some of the points covered during the webinar. | | | | useful for detailed technology prioritization - they |
| The webinar started off with a quick description | | | | are essentially risk/benefit matrices which enable |
| of how what a Hype Cycle is all about. To remind | | | | the user to look beyond the hype and assess |
| you, Hype Cycles are management models that | | | | technology opportunities in terms of their relative |
| help organizations understand the landscape of | | | | impact on the enterprise and the timing of that |
| technology maturity and markets, and to decide | | | | impact. Take a look at the Emerging Technologies |
| which technology innovations to adopt, postpone | | | | Priority Matrix for 2010 on Gartner's website. |
| or ignore, and when is an appropriate time to | | | | The vertical "expectations" axis has been replaced |
| adopt. The Gartner Hype Cycle model was first | | | | with "benefit" which helps us decide which |
| published 15 years ago, and has grown to an | | | | technologies to invest in. The top left hand corner |
| annual release of between 70 and 80 Hype | | | | contains "high priority" technologies - where we |
| Cycles per year. | | | | should focus our early efforts and resources - e.g. |
| Jackie Fenn went on to discuss some specialized | | | | cloud computing, cloud/web platforms, mobile |
| Hype Cycles, one of which was the Cloud and | | | | application stores. These are low-risk high-benefit |
| Platforms Hype Cycle - including private cloud | | | | technologies that are likely to become mainstream |
| computing, cloud computing, cloud/web platforms, | | | | within the next 5 years. |
| mobile application stores, activity streams and | | | | On the other side, in the top right hand corner, |
| Internet micropayment systems. | | | | we have technologies with a potentially very high |
| Private cloud computing is making its way up the | | | | return - but also a higher risk. As it stands in |
| Technology Trigger, towards the Peak of Inflated | | | | 2010, these include autonomous vehicles and |
| Expectations. Fenn explains that certain industries | | | | mobile robots. Don't expect to see these |
| (e.g. Governments) are realizing the benefits of | | | | technologies emerging anytime soon, but when |
| cloud computing but are concerned about the level | | | | they do, they have the potential to be of high |
| of security for their data - enter the private cloud. | | | | value. These are the type of technologies that |
| She also makes the very valid point that most of | | | | are often ignored - so keep an eye on them, as |
| the technologies included in the Gartner Hype | | | | early-adopters are already moving with these |
| Cycles are not new - they are niche ideas that | | | | things. |
| early-adopters have already been using, which are | | | | Cloud computing is to well-positioned to become a |
| moving towards becoming mainstream | | | | high priority for organizations over the next few |
| technologies. | | | | years as more and more people realize its benefit |
| Cloud computing has crept past the Peak of | | | | and low-risk. When you compare its position in last |
| Inflated Expectations and is making it's way down | | | | years Hype Cycle you can see the graduation of |
| the curve towards the Slope of Enlightenment - in | | | | cloud computing along the curve. You will also |
| other words, cloud computing is about to explode! | | | | notice that some technologies such as private |
| How can we use this kind of information to our | | | | cloud computing were not even on Gartner's |
| advantage as an organisation? You'll see on the | | | | radar last year, which shows just how quickly |
| graph that each technology is marked differently | | | | technology is adopted and how fast it matures, |
| on the curve - this tells us the timeframe in which | | | | reinforcing the importance of early investment in |
| Gartner expects the technology to reach | | | | such technology. |